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Cars! Cars? Cars!
Ignominious:
I'm quite confident that the current move to electric vehicles is going to start taking a significant growth in the coming few years.
There's a couple of factors that I think are bringing this about.
Publicly we're becoming a lot more aware of the pollution issues relating to petrol and, particularly, diesel powered vehicles. There's a better understanding of how those vehicles contribute to poor air quality and, in turn, public health. With the vast majority of car journeys made being well within the half range of an electric car then use and ownership of an electric vehicle becomes far more attractive to a consumer.
Current fuel prices are only going to continue to increase. That will also be true of electricity. However, in comparison, a compound percentage scale of electric is far more manageable than than it is for petrol or diesel. The only issue here is infrastructure where we're currently seeing a bit of cat and mouse culture on supply and demand. Some government initiatives are tackling this head on by directly commissioning a network of charging points so that becomes less of an issue. However, the nature of vehicular charging does raise the risk of Jevon's Paradox coming into affect.
Some governments are proposing and introducing legislation that means that they will not licence any new petrol or diesel vehicle after a certain date. That means that vehicle manufacturers will want to make sure that they production and supply chain logistics are already established and robust ahead of that date.
While there are some inherent concerns with this scale of change, it generally is good news. We're openly considering a radical shift in our transport model and, save a few blinkered petrol heads, we seem fairly receptive to it. While I would rather see this change come about sooner, I'm cautiously optimistic that I'll see a majority shift to electric in my lifetime.
zisraelsen:
I agree the swotch will happen but i think it will take a very long time.
Jevons paradox comes into effect when you consider producing that amount of full-electric cars as well. The only battery technology we have today capable of supporting an all-electric car is lithium-based, and no facet of a regular fuel-burning car requires lithium. Supplying that lithium would require dramatic scaling of mining efforts as well as transporting and processing it, which all cause pollution in and of themselves. I don't argue this means we shouldn't switch to all electric; all this had to be worked out for petrol engines too. But it will slow the process and counteract it's main advertised benefit which may hurt public opinion.
Additionally, most people, myself included, are unable to afford a new car, let alone a new electric car. There will be a delay in integration as electrics take time to enter the used market, and the nature of progress, and of battery degradation, promise that these used models will be less efficient and capable than the new versions. Now the same is true of fuel engines, so again, not claiming nails in a coffin, but these factors will slow adoption in my opinion.
What I'm excited to see is the culture that will surround electric cars. Will there be people who mod them, like they do with fuel burners? Will they be fast? Will racing remain petrol fueled, or will the tech eventually be cheap enough to be raced by people like me?
Cornelius:
One point that I'm missing in many discussions about electric cars is where this electricity is coming from, and how efficient it's transport and storage is. It's still utopic, to believe your electricity is only from clean sources. Quite a lot is still being produced in gas, and even coal plants. Until such time as the supply is sufficiently clean, it might, paradoxically, be cleaner to have an efficient internal combustion engine.
As technology improves, I'm sure will find solution for that as well, however.
Ignominious:
http://www.pocket-lint.com/news/130380-future-batteries-coming-soon-charge-in-seconds-last-months-and-power-over-the-air.amphtml
I think that with more car industry money being directed at battery tech and the kind of research that is ongoing, we're looking at a 8-10 year issue, not a generational one.
Lithium is the parafin of its technology and I think were close to ditching as an outmoded panacea. Perhaps ironically, as they shouldn't mix with cars, phones are going to be an interesting testbed here.
You're right about the economics, it is an issue for those who don't currently buy new cars. I'm not sure how that will pan out but electrics may force a large shift in a) how we design cars and b) how we perceive them socially and culturally. Both of those could lead to a market for cars that a much cheaper than they are now but also more modular, which makes them much easier to both upgrade and refurbish as finances allow. Note that we're already in the third wave of micro-commuting and this time its starting to stick.
Ignominious:
Its a good point about energy generation for powering electric cars. But firstly the USDE puts all electric on a par with good hybrids which trump petrol and diesel. However, these only compare on CO2 produced on a per mile/kilometre scale. They don't look at other tailpipe and stack emissions because they're different and therefore hard to compare.
Second there's the point of where they produce it. Stack emissions at ground level, aren't distributed according to population density and are far less difficult to design control measures as well as integrate substitution.
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