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Author Topic: A bad time to buy new technology.  (Read 5653 times)

notselfcreated

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A bad time to buy new technology.
« on: 09 Dec 2006, 09:23 »

OK, so it's like, the holidays and such, and the consumeristic side of myself is usually full of glee at so many new releases and gadgets and toys and stuff. But this year it's kind of muted.

Looking around at everything that's coming out, I'm seeing that it would be a bad idea to buy almost anything out there this month. Three big reasons.

  • The next-gen DVD standards war still needs to play out. There can be only one winner, we all know that. Although my money's on HD-DVD, does anybody really want to make that gamble this early? Regular DVDs are fine now; I'm sitting tight at least until I know I won't be stuck with the "format that lost".
  • Probably the most common refrain in new computer reviews recently is, "doesn't have quite the umph necessary to run Windows Vista". Now I could rant about how the release of Vista at this time in its current state basically does nothing but punish PC users, but I won't. I will say that the PC market looks pretty unfriendly to budget-minded people interested in a truly Vista-ready machine. Not that running last generation OS's is a terrible thing (I've got family members perfectly happy with their Win98 computers), but the hardware market has a long time yet before it catches up with the OS market.
  • 2.5G is pretty commonly available now, and it does most people great; but now we've got 3G networks in infancy. Not many phones, laptops, and other gadgets support UMTS/HSDPA yet, but they will. Again, to spend so much money this month on a NEW gadget, wouldn't it suck to be without 3G next year? I vote yes. Sorry Sony UX, I shed a tear for you.
  • Related to that is the horrible and non-competitive cost of high speed data plans. The market must rule against this, and eventually, it will, but not yet.

So anyway, too many gambles to be an early adapter. Too many 1.0's. Just my warning: think of the near future when you buy.
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Catfish_Man

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Re: A bad time to buy new technology.
« Reply #1 on: 09 Dec 2006, 09:35 »

Can't say any of those except high speed internet are really relevant to me.
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FireStarter

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Re: A bad time to buy new technology.
« Reply #2 on: 10 Dec 2006, 04:22 »

Sorry, I just get all warm and fuzzy inside when someone talks techie like that. You are probably right about not buying any new hardware this year, although the GeForce 8800 packs more than enough oomph to keep a vista machine ticking over quite nicely, almost on it's own. I am actually somewhat gleeful about Vista, finially AMD will be given the market edge. Mainly through their being the ONLY true 64bit processor out there. I feel sorry for all those people that dropped a grand or so on an e6600 because frankly that's gonna get a mud hole stomped in it's ass for just being a 64bit emulating processor. (Incase you didn't know intel hasn't built a true 64bit archetecture yet, even the Core2 Quatro is STILL a 32bit Processor running off a 64bit register. Not only that but there's four....It's really going to have a hard time with the REAL DEAL in 64bit OS)
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Catfish_Man

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Re: A bad time to buy new technology.
« Reply #3 on: 10 Dec 2006, 08:31 »

(Incase you didn't know intel hasn't built a true 64bit archetecture yet, even the Core2 Quatro is STILL a 32bit Processor running off a 64bit register. Not only that but there's four....It's really going to have a hard time with the REAL DEAL in 64bit OS)

Uh, no. Wrong.

<edit> Actually, not so much "wrong" as "nonsense". A processor with 64 bit GPRs and 64 bit fixed point/memory instructions is generally considered to be a 64 bit processor... by definition. Actually basically everything in the post is wrong, but in more subtle ways than the quoted bit. </edit>
« Last Edit: 10 Dec 2006, 08:33 by Catfish_Man »
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FireStarter

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Re: A bad time to buy new technology.
« Reply #4 on: 10 Dec 2006, 13:04 »

Yes it is "considered" however that statement is still correct. I'll explain it to you this way. AMD's 64bit archetecture runs off of, like intel, a 64 bit register, HOWEVER, AMD's 64bit processors process 64bits at a time. This advantage is suitably noted when one runs a benchmark test Intel vs AMD. Yes intel performs at a higher clockspeed, gets better 3dmark scores, but amd gets a MUCH higher score on Mflops. Hell my athlon 4600+ x2 outperformed intel's core2 duo on the number crunching benches. The reason why Intel can beat AMD on the other benches is because there isn't a TRUE 64bit OS (unless you look over to the unix side of things. When vista launches you will most likely see AMD performing consistantly better...That's also not to mention when ATI and AMD finally release an answer to the GeForce 8800, you will see a GPU that meshes seemlessly with the AMD processors, giving AMD yet another boost.

Now, AMD will have Intel by the short and curlies in a few months. The AMD quad cores have already been produced. (HP and AMD did a Real-Time HD videoconfrencing display, and to prove the system was real and totally working they ran a 3dmark benchmark test as part of the display. It was a quadcore AMD processor.) Now, why hasn't AMD announced or released their's yet? Because they want to perfect the interactions and workload distributions for the 4 cores before they release. Expect to see some amazing shit in a few months.
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Catfish_Man

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Re: A bad time to buy new technology.
« Reply #5 on: 10 Dec 2006, 13:28 »

Yes it is "considered" however that statement is still correct. I'll explain it to you this way. AMD's 64bit archetecture runs off of, like intel, a 64 bit register, HOWEVER, AMD's 64bit processors process 64bits at a time.
Actually both Intel and AMD have instructions that process 32, 64, or 128 bits at a time. Core 2 and AMD's upcoming core can handle the 128 bit ones in a single cycle (see section at the bottom about SIMD). Core 1 and AMD's current chips take two cycles to do the 128 bit instructions.

Quote
This advantage is suitably noted when one runs a benchmark test Intel vs AMD. Yes intel performs at a higher clockspeed, gets better 3dmark scores, but amd gets a MUCH higher score on Mflops.

Intel's clock speeds are typically lower than the AMDs they're competing against in benchmarks these days, actually. Yet they still win every real world test. This is, however, not due to 64 bitness, which provides barely any performance boost for 99% of things on either AMD or Intel.
Also, FLOPS is a completely useless "benchmark". It measures nothing about how fast things actually get done. Clock frequency is also a useless benchmark.
Quote
Hell my athlon 4600+ x2 outperformed intel's core2 duo on the number crunching benches. The reason why Intel can beat AMD on the other benches is because there isn't a TRUE 64bit OS (unless you look over to the unix side of things. When vista launches you will most likely see AMD performing consistantly better...
I run a true 64 bit OS some of the time, Windows none of the time. AMD doesn't do much better in 64 bit benchmarks (a bit; instruction fusing in Core2 doesn't work on 64 bit instructions iirc, so AMD gains back a little there). If AMD wants to compete against Core 2 they're going to have to release a new core (which they have in the works), and they're going to have to catch up on manufacturing (which they're trying to do).

Quote
That's also not to mention when ATI and AMD finally release an answer to the GeForce 8800, you will see a GPU that meshes seemlessly with the AMD processors, giving AMD yet another boost.
More likely we'll see a really nice integrated graphics solution. On-die GPUs is not a good idea at all (yet, anyway), since most cores are thermally limited.

Quote
Now, AMD will have Intel by the short and curlies in a few months. The AMD quad cores have already been produced. (HP and AMD did a Real-Time HD videoconfrencing display, and to prove the system was real and totally working they ran a 3dmark benchmark test as part of the display. It was a quadcore AMD processor.) Now, why hasn't AMD announced or released their's yet? Because they want to perfect the interactions and workload distributions for the 4 cores before they release. Expect to see some amazing shit in a few months.

AMD can't control scheduling or process distribution; that's a software concern. The reason why they haven't released it is because their 65nm manufacturing transition is still in progress, and manufacturing quads at 90nm is prohibitively expensive.


As a bit of further explanation of a rather confusing issue:

A 64 bit chip processes single 64 bit numbers. This means it can handle much larger numbers, but it doesn't mean it can handle more things at once. The wider instructions that can handle more things at once are called SIMD instructions, and they work on multiple 32 or 64 bit numbers simultaneously. Typically 4 32 bit ones, or 2 64 bit ones at once. Both AMD and Intel have had 4x32 SIMD for quite a few years now.

So the situations in which you will see a performance boost from 64 bit chips are only a) when you use numbers larger than 2^32 a lot, or b) when you need to use more than 2^32 bits of address space (4GB of ram). You also get a slight boost because AMD got rid of some crap in the x86 instruction set when they added 64 bit instructions on (low GPR count, some ancient addressing modes, etc...). As a tradeoff, though, your caches get effectively smaller because your pointers are larger.

In conclusion: 64 bit is meaningless until we need more than 4GB of ram. Clock frequency, execution width (that's number of pipelines, not width of pipelines), instruction scheduling flexibility, branch prediction, and memory hierarchy will all continue to be more important factors than 64 bit for most applications.

<edit> Also, the reason the 64 bit AMDs are so much faster than their predecessors is because they completely redid the memory hierarchy. They just like advertising 64 bit better, so they try to pretend that's why it's faster. </edit>
« Last Edit: 10 Dec 2006, 13:32 by Catfish_Man »
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Ozymandias

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Re: A bad time to buy new technology.
« Reply #6 on: 11 Dec 2006, 08:19 »

Oi! Bugger!

Nerds!

As an amateur compiler & OS writer, 64-bit architecture scares me. Frickin' x86 is already a PITA to write on, don't give me 64-bit commands to handle too! ARGH!
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Mnementh

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Re: A bad time to buy new technology.
« Reply #7 on: 11 Dec 2006, 10:42 »

Catfish Man o/

In regards to the HD-DVD/Blu-Ray war.  I think both will either be DOA or completely irrelevant by the time they're affordable to the average consumer.  Apple's iTV and Vista's Media Center set up will most likely ensure this as high speed connections become ubiquitous and the price of storage drops.

Personally, I'm ditching cable tv in favor of the Digital Hub idea.
« Last Edit: 11 Dec 2006, 10:46 by Daniel »
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Catfish_Man

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Re: A bad time to buy new technology.
« Reply #8 on: 11 Dec 2006, 14:43 »

Oi! Bugger!

Nerds!

As an amateur compiler & OS writer, 64-bit architecture scares me. Frickin' x86 is already a PITA to write on, don't give me 64-bit commands to handle too! ARGH!

You should be pleased :) If you're writing 64 bit x86 you can assume the presence of modern extensions. Huzzah for not having to use stack-based x87 shit!
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mberan42

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Re: A bad time to buy new technology.
« Reply #9 on: 12 Dec 2006, 02:53 »

Here's a good comparison between Blu-Ray and HD DVD: link.
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