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Author Topic: The country, not the state.  (Read 13429 times)

RedLion

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The country, not the state.
« on: 09 Aug 2008, 18:07 »

So how about that Georgia?

This actually frightens me quite a bit. It isn't just a battle about a separatist enclave, and it's not really even about Georgia. It has the potential to develop into something devastating. There are so many things at play here that it's hard to keep track of. Even the immediate backstory is a bit confusing:

Russia's had troops in South Ossetia since the war in 1996 when it tried to break away from Georgia and only gained a sort of "de facto" independence, not recognized by any country in the world, and Russia inserted troops as "peacekeepers." After the previous pro-Moscow authoritarian regime of Georgia was thrown out in the bloodless Rose Revolution of 2003 and Mikhail Saakashvili was voted in, he took a staunchly pro-western, pro-Europe, pro-American stance and basically told Russia to fuck off and stop trying to interfere in Georgia. That of course infuriated Russia and over the last few years, they've been actively undermining Georgia in South Ossetia and another breakaway province, Abkhazia. armed and trained rebels who have been launching hit-and-run attacks on Georgian towns for the past few years.

Now, last year Georgia was promised that it would eventually become a member of NATO, along with Ukraine. This infuriated Russia and, by most accounts, made Putin determined to "punish" Georgia. It upped its presence in Ossetia and Abkhazia, unilaterally (and, under international treaties and norms, illegally) gave Russian passports to almost all citizens of South Ossetia, thus allowing them to claim Ossetians as Russian citizens. Then the Ossetian rebels increased the frequency and ferocity of their attacks. A few days ago, Georgia launched a campaign to stop these attacks, which wound up killing civilians and Russian soldiers.

Basically, Georgia took the bait. This allowed Russia to claim that Georgia was "killing Russian peacekeepers and Russian citizens," which, it seems, is what they've been planning to happen--the speed with which they deployed Russian tanks and soldiers suggests that they had them mobilized before Georgia launched the attack to crush the separatists in what is still really Georgian territory. Since then, as it says in the link, Russia's been bombing Georgian cities, while Georgian troops battle Russian soldiers and Ossetian rebels in the Ossetian capital. There are conflicting reports about who controls what right now, but it's hard to see how the small and poor country of Georgia can fend off Russia.

Further, this is an exercise in Russian geopolitics. It's retaliation for Europe's support of Kosovo's independence, which Russia is claiming as a precedent for allying itself with Ossetia and Abkhazia. It's an exploitation of the unilateralist precedent set by America's invasion of Iraq. And most worryingly, this is Russia flexing its muscle, showing that its military strength has been revitalized after the decade of decay in the 90s, and sending a message to Ukraine, Moldova, Estonia...any former Soviet Republics that have been seeking to cast off Moscow's influence and--god forbid--actually control their own internal affairs.

This is serious business. What are we supposed to do about it? Georgia is our ally and our friend, and for all Saakashvili's tendencies to egotism and authoritarianism, he's opened up Georgian society to unprecedented levels, and while Georgians are still dirt poor, they're much better off than they were before he came to power. But Europe and America are turning a blind eye to this because they're tied up in Afghanistan and Iraq, and this is the consequence: when an actual threat emerges, we can't do anything to stop it because we went running off on fools errands against countries that didn't do anything to us.

But the rest of the world needs to do something. Europeans should be especially concerned--this has massive implications for Europe, namely the Baltic states, which are already a part of the EU and are constantly under pressure and cyber-attacks from Russian nationalist gangs, as well as for Ukraine, which is a crucial country to be independent. It's obvious that Russia believes it should still have considerable influence in all former Soviet republics, particularly ones that are important to its previous empire, such as Georgia and Ukraine (Indeed, Vladimir Putin once went so far as to say that "Ukraine is not a country.") If Georgia is allowed to fall, Russia's not going to stop. But Europeans are so dependent on Russia for their energy that they're stuck. Germany is a large part of this problem, as it seems determined to have Russia have a near monopoly on energy supplies to Europe. Europe needs to break away from this dependence on Russian gas and oil and look to other places--it would be wiser, frankly, to get energy even from places like Saudi Arabia rather than Russia. The Saudis don't have neo-imperialistic ambitions in Europe. Russia certainly does.

For all the talk of worries about China's rise, China is relatively pragmatic. It has no desire to raise tensions with anyone, since its economic rise is so entwined in the global economy and it has a stake in stability. Russia, on the other hand, is far more unpredictable and wanton to act erratically and violently to any challenge to it.

tl;dr? -- Probably not the beginning of WWIII, but a massive fucking problem with truly global implications. This is Russia here-- not some backwards Muslim country that can't defend itself. How do you stop it from invading Georgia, a sovereign country?
« Last Edit: 09 Aug 2008, 18:13 by RedLion »
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valley_parade

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Re: The country, not the state.
« Reply #1 on: 09 Aug 2008, 18:28 »



In my country, WE INVADE YOU!
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ForteBass

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Re: The country, not the state.
« Reply #2 on: 09 Aug 2008, 22:51 »

And further proof why we have a hard time having intellectual threads anymore. Thanks guys. Wonderful.
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Re: The country, not the state.
« Reply #3 on: 09 Aug 2008, 23:07 »

This whole situation reminds me of when Germany invaded the Sudetendland in 1938, claiming that it was liberating the Sudetenland - Hitler then proceeded to take over the rest of Czechoslovakia in 1939, a precursor to the invasion of Poland, and then we all know what happened there.
What we don't need is another appeasing, 'scrap of paper' waving Neville Chamberlain response, letting Russia off the hook.
Just a few weeks ago, my history teacher was telling us that he thought that it would be Russia that would make the first aggressive expansionist move. Smart man.
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negative creep

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Re: The country, not the state.
« Reply #4 on: 09 Aug 2008, 23:34 »

yeah, so how did we stop the USA from invading Iraq, a sovereign country? Oh yeah, we didn't!
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RedLion

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Re: The country, not the state.
« Reply #5 on: 09 Aug 2008, 23:35 »

Bit of a different situation, but you're right, and like I said that's part of the problem. Russia can point to America's invasion of Iraq as a precedent to deflect criticism from the west.
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negative creep

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Re: The country, not the state.
« Reply #6 on: 10 Aug 2008, 00:31 »

Of course, the situation is different. I oversimplified, kind of, because I am drunk and angry. But there are innocent people being killed out there and there's nothing we can do.
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Johnny C

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Re: The country, not the state.
« Reply #7 on: 10 Aug 2008, 02:45 »

Quick, let's see how long this thread will last without mentioning oil.
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Johnny C

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Re: The country, not the state.
« Reply #8 on: 10 Aug 2008, 02:45 »

wait, shit
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Jimmy the Squid

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Re: The country, not the state.
« Reply #9 on: 10 Aug 2008, 04:09 »

It's a little late for that kind of talk, Johnnyboy.

Europe needs to break away from this dependence on Russian gas and oil and look to other places--it would be wiser, frankly, to get energy even from places like Saudi Arabia rather than Russia. The Saudis don't have neo-imperialistic ambitions in Europe. Russia certainly does.

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valley_parade

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Re: The country, not the state.
« Reply #10 on: 10 Aug 2008, 06:08 »

We're going to all fly there and be peacekeepers!

GEORGIACON 08!
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waterloosunset

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Re: The country, not the state.
« Reply #11 on: 10 Aug 2008, 06:17 »

Russia says that around 60% of the South Ossetians have Russian Citizenship, and have the right to secede, with Kosovo as a precedent. However, the area is still Georgian sovereign territory, and they have the right to maintain it. We in the west can't really criticise either party either- The US invaded another sovereign country without reason, and we in the UK had 30 years of trouble with Northern Ireland
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KharBevNor

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Re: The country, not the state.
« Reply #12 on: 10 Aug 2008, 08:52 »

I think that the US should fight Russia.

I mean lets be honest, it is obvious that both country is itching to do it. They're still tooled up for massive conventional war and they never got to use any of their cool gear. I think they should sign a gentlemens agreement not to use nukes, maybe hand the keys to Finland or something? Then they should just duke it out old-school. The news footage will be fucking AWESOME. Of course, I don't think they should fight in South Ossetia, because those dudes have already had a pretty raw deal. How about somewhere out in some desert? There's a nice little mountain in Isreal they could use:

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SimpsonsParadox

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Re: The country, not the state.
« Reply #13 on: 10 Aug 2008, 09:03 »

This actually scares me a bit. As stated before, Russia doesn't tend to give a rats ass about world opinion. It seems the only way to deter them would be through force. I wouldn't be surprised to see large naval formations from NATO countries moving closer to western Russia soon. I also wouldn't be surprised to see American 'Technical' or 'Advisory' assistance to the Georgians (Georgianians?) soon. Hopefully this can be solved through diplomacy, but even then it doesn't bode well. If Russia gets off with anything lighter than a total rollback to how it was before Russia invaded, they're going to take this as a sign that they can do this to other countries and get away with full benefits. We'll just have to wait and see.
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tommydski

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Re: The country, not the state.
« Reply #14 on: 10 Aug 2008, 09:04 »

Russia is the biggest country in the world but from a financial perspective, they are essentially a house of cards. They can't afford a major war and comparing their defence and military spending to other countries puts it into perspective. The United States spends on its military 5.8 times more than China, 10.2 times more than Russia and 98.6 times more than Iran. That's just the US, not the western allies or NATO. In fact, the US and its strongest allies (the NATO countries, Japan, South Korea and Australia) spend $1.1 trillion on their militaries combined, representing 72% of the world's total.



Thus when people talk about a 'New Cold War' or another war between the super-powers, it's difficult to take it seriously. Putin made a good show of things while he was in power because it was a big part of his plan to make Russia seem like a force in the economic and geopolitical community. He was trying to make Russian a going concern in the world theatre one more time for the benefit of their people. Sometimes he did it completely ridiculous ways. This is an example of that continuity. Comparatively small acts of aggression against former Soviet Bloc nations.
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öde

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Re: The country, not the state.
« Reply #15 on: 10 Aug 2008, 09:19 »

Exactly, the Russian state can't keep control of it's own land (crime, etc), let alone pose a threat to others.

I should ask the Russian world politics student staying at my friend's house what he thinks of this.
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waterloosunset

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Re: The country, not the state.
« Reply #16 on: 10 Aug 2008, 09:58 »

Lot of crime in the US too..


And NATO can't fight Russia now, the only major players are bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan. Russia knows this, as does Iran. That's where all this posturing is coming from.

And let's not forget the price of oil. Give Russia a few years, it'll be back. They never did get rid of all that hardware from the Cold War. As soon as they can, they'll be bringing it back into readiness.
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Johnny C

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Re: The country, not the state.
« Reply #17 on: 10 Aug 2008, 09:59 »

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7552659.stm

Quote
But Russia denied that exchanges of fire had stopped, and continued to bomb targets near Georgia's capital Tbilisi

welp
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RedLion

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Re: The country, not the state.
« Reply #18 on: 10 Aug 2008, 10:04 »

The fact that Russia only carries out acts of aggression against former Soviet republics is what makes it so unnerving. Russia can't seem to accept that these are independent countries and that it has no business telling them how to run their affairs.

And the Russian state has its territory firmly locked up. It has no problems keeping control over its own land now that the war in Chechnya and a smaller rebellion in Ingushetia have mostly died out.

Obviously Russia's economy is built on nothing but sky-high prices for natural gas and oil. If the price were to take a sudden plunge, it would take Russia's entire economy along with it. But even though the price has been falling the last week or so, it shows no signs of falling so far or so fast as to make Russia realize that its economy is living on borrowed time, especially since they never really reformed any of the business practices or official corruption that led to the economic crisis of the 90's.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7552659.stm

Quote
But Russia denied that exchanges of fire had stopped, and continued to bomb targets near Georgia's capital Tbilisi

welp

Lovely. Basically they're saying "WHAT? WHAT'S THAT? CEASEFIRE? SORRY, CAN'T HEAR YOU OVER ALL THESE BOMBS I'M DROPPING!"
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tommydski

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Re: The country, not the state.
« Reply #19 on: 10 Aug 2008, 10:17 »

And NATO can't fight Russia now, the only major players are bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan. Russia knows this, as does Iran. That's where all this posturing is coming from.

Key word: Posturing. That's exactly the right description.

And let's not forget the price of oil. Give Russia a few years, it'll be back. They never did get rid of all that hardware from the Cold War. As soon as they can, they'll be bringing it back into readiness.

There is no chance of this happening. They have neither the resources or the internal infrastructure. The USSR was almost as much of a bluff as the current regime. The idea that their rotting and technologically outdated arsenal from the arms race is going to somehow spring back into readiness is pretty absurd. Russia has a third world economy. They are vaguely comparable to the smallest of western European countries in terms of GNP if you believe their most, shall we say, optimistic reports. Personally I don't.

Right now Russia has more in common with say, Nigeria than any European country. Both are oil-rich but corrupt to the point of economic stagnation. There's a good article in the Economist here which sums up some of these issues quit succinctly.
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öde

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Re: The country, not the state.
« Reply #20 on: 10 Aug 2008, 10:53 »

Lot of crime in the US too..

I meant how widespread corruption is and how criminal gangs seized a lot of industries after the fall of the USSR.
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waterloosunset

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Re: The country, not the state.
« Reply #21 on: 10 Aug 2008, 13:39 »

And NATO can't fight Russia now, the only major players are bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan. Russia knows this, as does Iran. That's where all this posturing is coming from.

Key word: Posturing. That's exactly the right description.

And let's not forget the price of oil. Give Russia a few years, it'll be back. They never did get rid of all that hardware from the Cold War. As soon as they can, they'll be bringing it back into readiness.

There is no chance of this happening. They have neither the resources or the internal infrastructure. The USSR was almost as much of a bluff as the current regime. The idea that their rotting and technologically outdated arsenal from the arms race is going to somehow spring back into readiness is pretty absurd. Russia has a third world economy. They are vaguely comparable to the smallest of western European countries in terms of GNP if you believe their most, shall we say, optimistic reports. Personally I don't.



How much of America's nuclear arsenal are leftovers from the Cold War?

Lot of crime in the US too..

I meant how widespread corruption is and how criminal gangs seized a lot of industries after the fall of the USSR.


I don't think that was much different under Soviet rule, except the crooks ran the Communist Party
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tommydski

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Re: The country, not the state.
« Reply #22 on: 10 Aug 2008, 13:47 »

How much of America's nuclear arsenal are leftovers from the Cold War?

Is this question at all related to what we were discussion above? Can you expand or explain the relevance? I can't think of a reply because it doesn't seem significant.
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Leinad

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Re: The country, not the state.
« Reply #23 on: 10 Aug 2008, 14:07 »

I don't see any real sort of imperialism being allowed in today's world; there are too many people who like the world the way it is right now. Stagnation seems to fit many people's idea of life, and they are happy with it. The UN, Nato, the EU, they are all there to AVOID wars, to keep borders from changing. Can you imagine a European country attacking another? It is simply foreign to our minds.

This isn't the case with Russia, but everyone is used to Russia being a slightly unstable shed that used to hold a fair sized generator, not a power house that is expanding it's territories. To be frank, the way that the global economy works today more land and people =/= more power or wealth. If that was true, India, Russia and China would completely dominate the world market. While people and land help, it really comes down to how educated you can get your country to be so that they can help move your country forward. Russia is, as far as I can tell, not doing this. At the very least the USSR put up the facade of doing this, and even though there wasn't freedom, there was some amount of progress, until they decided just to pretend.

Butif the Russians are allowed to expand in an Imperialistic manner I do not believe they can support that for long. They are too weak at home in order to make any citizens they "acquire" follow their laws, and they will not be able to defend their acquisitions against any kind of real attack.
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RedLion

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Re: The country, not the state.
« Reply #24 on: 10 Aug 2008, 17:19 »

The Georgians have pulled out of Ossetia and are pleading for a ceasefire, calling both Putin and Medvedev, and giving written copies of their ceasefire to all Russian diplomats in Georgia, but Russia is having none of it. While they continue to drive even deeper in Georgia and have now begun bombing Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia, they're also now sending in navy ships to Georgia's Black Sea coastline.

Here's where things are starting to get fun:
Russia launched this ships from the Crimean Peninsula, which is part of Ukraine, but Russia and Ukraine have had an understanding that Russia can dock its naval vessels in Crimea...until 2010, when this agreement runs out.

Today, Ukraine came out and publicly said that it now has no intention of renewing that agreement and further, if Russia didn't halt its "aggression" against Georgia, it would end the agreement "immediately" and would not allow Russian ships to dock at Crimea after they return from the coast of Georgia, effectively leaving Russian ships without a major port to dock at, which is going to piss the fuck out of Russia.

This is escalating quite quickly.

Anyway, Russia's economy is built on abnormally high commodity prices; nothing more, and the fact that its military was able to crush the army of a tiny, poor Caucasus nation doesn't necessarily mean that their military is a world-class organization again.

Even with all that taken into consideration, I'd say that this has already gone far beyond "posturing." I mean, this is just a full-scale, all-out invasion of Georgia now.
« Last Edit: 10 Aug 2008, 18:29 by RedLion »
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tommydski

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Re: The country, not the state.
« Reply #25 on: 10 Aug 2008, 17:33 »

The thing about ordering the military to stop doing anything is that it's basically at their whim whether they choose to comply or not.
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Uber Ritter

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Re: The country, not the state.
« Reply #26 on: 10 Aug 2008, 17:47 »

This is just getting more terrifying and infuriating as time goes by.
I don't honestly know what we, or rather America and the West, should do, as someone who has paradoxical impulses in both 'realist' and 'idealist' directions.
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ForteBass

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Re: The country, not the state.
« Reply #27 on: 10 Aug 2008, 18:17 »

One good thing we've done so far is allowed the troops of theirs we were using in Iraq to go home and try and sort out their own shit. Hopefully the shit won't be much. but it doesn't look that way, now does it?
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Re: The country, not the state.
« Reply #28 on: 10 Aug 2008, 20:17 »

Kahr, nicely played.
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Re: The country, not the state.
« Reply #29 on: 10 Aug 2008, 20:22 »

Regarding Ukraine, they had a premise to invade Ossetia/Georgia, whereas Ukraine is taking the very reasonable position of "don't get us messed up in that shit". I don't think they'd take military action against Ukraine over this, nor do I think Ukraine would intervene actively on Georgia's behalf.

Unless, of course, Russia tries to go back to Ukraine anyways and then the Ukrainian navy goes all 'back up off of this' and then they're sitting there in the black sea until eventually someone shoots at someone and shit hits fans but we should hope saner minds would step in before that.
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waterloosunset

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Re: The country, not the state.
« Reply #30 on: 11 Aug 2008, 07:00 »

How much of America's nuclear arsenal are leftovers from the Cold War?

Is this question at all related to what we were discussion above? Can you expand or explain the relevance? I can't think of a reply because it doesn't seem significant.

I put that in because you mentioned Russia's outdated nuclear arsenal, I was wondering how much of America's are relics from the Cold War. I know the UK is only now planning on renewing our nukes.


And I remember reading how the Russian army a few years back were planning on a major reform following all the continuted failings in Chechnya. Could this invasion of Georgia be real life training?



And with oil prices, I'm sure that money will be ploughed back into strengthening Russia, so when the oil does run out, it should be able to still be strong. Let's not forget, western strength is entirely reliant on oil, without it we can do nothing.


Oh just remembered something. A gas pipeline was built throught Georgia to bypass Russia, reducing Europe's dependance on Russian oil. anyone else think that this invasion is possibly an attempt to fully retake control over European oil and gas?
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waterloosunset

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Re: The country, not the state.
« Reply #31 on: 11 Aug 2008, 11:11 »

All good points Tommy, but can America act unilaterally again? Is there enough manpower (and political will), what with being bogged down in Afghanistan? Europe relies on Russian oil far more than the US does, and countries like the UK, Germany and France would be needed to take on Russia right now.




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negative creep

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Re: The country, not the state.
« Reply #32 on: 11 Aug 2008, 12:47 »

Germany would be needed to take on Russia right now.


Ahahahahahaha. Not really.
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waterloosunset

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Re: The country, not the state.
« Reply #33 on: 11 Aug 2008, 12:59 »

Germany would be needed to take on Russia right now.


Ahahahahahaha. Not really.


More experience than anyone else...
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Re: The country, not the state.
« Reply #34 on: 11 Aug 2008, 13:12 »

Probably, but not nearly enough disposable troops.
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Ozymandias

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Re: The country, not the state.
« Reply #35 on: 11 Aug 2008, 13:23 »

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Scandanavian War Machine

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Re: The country, not the state.
« Reply #36 on: 11 Aug 2008, 14:12 »

holy shit

America is so awesome
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Re: The country, not the state.
« Reply #37 on: 11 Aug 2008, 14:44 »

I usually pretend to think people who ask questions like that are just kidding. It makes life bearable.
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Re: The country, not the state.
« Reply #38 on: 11 Aug 2008, 15:04 »

The best part is if you laugh at their joke, and they look confused at first and gradually start laughing along nervously.

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Re: The country, not the state.
« Reply #39 on: 11 Aug 2008, 15:05 »

I don't think that was much different under Soviet rule, except the crooks ran the Communist Party

Yeah, and now that they're not part of the government, the government has bugger all. The Russian state is pretty much a shell. A thick one, but still a shell.
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Spike

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Re: The country, not the state.
« Reply #40 on: 11 Aug 2008, 17:24 »

This actually scares me a bit. As stated before, Russia doesn't tend to give a rats ass about world opinion. It seems the only way to deter them would be through force. I wouldn't be surprised to see large naval formations from NATO countries moving closer to western Russia soon. I also wouldn't be surprised to see American 'Technical' or 'Advisory' assistance to the Georgians (Georgianians?) soon. Hopefully this can be solved through diplomacy, but even then it doesn't bode well. If Russia gets off with anything lighter than a total rollback to how it was before Russia invaded, they're going to take this as a sign that they can do this to other countries and get away with full benefits. We'll just have to wait and see.

From what I've come to understand, Georgia had already been receiving training and equipment from the U.S. 

I'm going to have to see some independent figures for the civilian casualties that came as a result of Georgia's shelling before I have any real opinion on who is the "bad guy."  Honestly, if the estimates of 1,400 civilian deaths are accurate, then I will have a very difficult time seeing Georgia as a victim.
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RedLion

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Re: The country, not the state.
« Reply #41 on: 11 Aug 2008, 18:38 »

Yeah, America had been training Georgian troops for this occasion, but it had only been underway for a few months, and as we can see, it hasn't payed much in terms of dividends, as Russia has taken the central city of Gori and effectively cut Georgia in half, taking control of the entire west of the country.

Basically, both sides have been committing grave human rights abuses. And it's not as if Georgia randomly decided to invade some peaceable enclave. It's Russia that has precipitated a war against Georgia by encouraging South Ossetian rebels to raise the pressure on Tbilisi and make demands that no Georgian leader could accept.

Oh just remembered something. A gas pipeline was built throught Georgia to bypass Russia, reducing Europe's dependance on Russian oil. anyone else think that this invasion is possibly an attempt to fully retake control over European oil and gas?

It's icing on the cake, I think. It certainly was extra incentive.

The fact is, this is a war that Moscow has been attempting to provoke for some time. Vladimir PUtin --the man who once called the collapse of the Soviet Union "the greatest catastrophe of the [20th] century" has reestablished a virtual czarist rule in Russia and is trying to restore the country to its once-dominant role in Eurasia and the world. While the economy is made of paper, it still, for now at least, has massive wealth from oil and gas; it holds  a near-monopoly over the energy supply to Europe.

With a million soldiers, thousands of nuclear warheads and the world's third-largest military budget, Russia seems to believe that what should have been a minor row presented a perfect opportunity to make its move.

It's too simplistic to trace Russia's aggression against Georgia only to its NATO aspirations or as a sort of revenge for Kosovo's independence. It is primarily a response to the "color revolutions" in Ukraine and Georgia in 2003 and 2004, when pro-Western governments replaced pro-Russian ones. What the West celebrated as a flowering of democracy the autocratic Putin saw as geopolitical and ideological encirclement.

Commentators are saying that Saakashvili made a mistake by sending troops to South Ossetia last week. That's true. But at the very base of everything, his "mistake" was to be president of a small, mostly democratic and adamantly pro-Western nation on the border of Putin's autocratic and belligerent Russia.
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Re: The country, not the state.
« Reply #42 on: 11 Aug 2008, 18:52 »

haha, thanks yahoo answers.

my friends (including myself) apparently all thought of the state at first... but being american we have to be self-centered, right?
then we realized LOL WAIT THAT DOESN'T MAKE SENSE.
and everything was right with the world.
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Patrick

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Re: The country, not the state.
« Reply #43 on: 11 Aug 2008, 20:06 »

(snip snip, jokes about Germany helping swat Russia away)
More experience than anyone else...

At getting their asses handed to them by cold weather, maybe...
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RedLion

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Re: The country, not the state.
« Reply #44 on: 11 Aug 2008, 20:09 »

Why are we not discussing my learned and praise-worthy analysis of events?

CAN'T YOU SEE, I NEED YOUR VALIDATION!
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Re: The country, not the state.
« Reply #45 on: 11 Aug 2008, 20:09 »

Can you imagine a European country attacking another?

Yes!

Gah, sorry, I have a wierd (and wrong) definition of European. Can you imagine, in today's world, a Northern/Western European country going to war with another? Like the classic France vs. Germany, even?

And RedLion: I really appreciate the analysis, but I feel terribly unlearned right now and can't comment very much.
« Last Edit: 11 Aug 2008, 20:18 by Leinad »
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nobo

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Re: The country, not the state.
« Reply #46 on: 11 Aug 2008, 20:49 »

Photos from South Ossetia

I think the fact that South Ossentians greeted the Russians as liberators and heroes tells you there was something horribly wrong in the region before this war even started. I don't agree wit the amount of force Russia is using, but I don't think that Georgia is blame free here.
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Well yes but (sorry andy) she doesn't look half as fucking bad ass as this motherfucker in Poland.

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Re: The country, not the state.
« Reply #47 on: 11 Aug 2008, 23:33 »

The friendly welcome could just be because they want independence and the Russians are giving it to them. The way things are going, though, it looks like they're going to give them the whole damn country.

Those photos scared the crap out of me, though. The whole thing looks so much like home that I want to cry just looking at it.

I would like to venture that if Ukraine DOES cut off their "Sup Russia, you can use our ports" deal early, if Russia does decide to be dicks and attack, it'll hopefully take a bit of their focus off of Georgia. And since both countries have been talking with NATO about joining up, I don't think NATO will be very happy with Russia if it's attacking both of it's prime candidates for invitation. Maybe then they can convince Russia that they can't just get away with that shit, and then Russia will fuck off.

Here's hoping the Russians stop being fuckbags and stop bombing Tbilisi. I want to see it intact if I ever visit.
« Last Edit: 12 Aug 2008, 03:00 by Patrick »
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RedLion

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Re: The country, not the state.
« Reply #48 on: 12 Aug 2008, 02:45 »

I was kidding, Leinad.

And of course Georgia isn't blameless in this. Both sides have committed human rights abuses.

But it breaks my heart that America and Europe pretty much seemed to tell Georgia that they would protect them by definitively saying that Georgia would be part of NATO someday, and now they're leaving them out to dry. There's nothing the US or the EU could do at this point, but I'm sure the people of Georgia are feeling pretty damn betrayed right now.
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Re: The country, not the state.
« Reply #49 on: 12 Aug 2008, 03:50 »

(snip snip, jokes about Germany helping swat Russia away)
More experience than anyone else...

At getting their asses handed to them by cold weather, maybe...

Nope, I think they pretty much learned that lesson. Fortunately too late, though.
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