So how about that
Georgia?This actually frightens me quite a bit. It isn't just a battle about a separatist enclave, and it's not really even about Georgia. It has the potential to develop into something devastating. There are so many things at play here that it's hard to keep track of. Even the immediate backstory is a bit confusing:
Russia's had troops in South Ossetia since the war in 1996 when it tried to break away from Georgia and only gained a sort of "de facto" independence, not recognized by any country in the world, and Russia inserted troops as "peacekeepers." After the previous pro-Moscow authoritarian regime of Georgia was thrown out in the bloodless Rose Revolution of 2003 and Mikhail Saakashvili was voted in, he took a staunchly pro-western, pro-Europe, pro-American stance and basically told Russia to fuck off and stop trying to interfere in Georgia. That of course infuriated Russia and over the last few years, they've been actively undermining Georgia in South Ossetia and another breakaway province, Abkhazia. armed and trained rebels who have been launching hit-and-run attacks on Georgian towns for the past few years.
Now, last year Georgia was promised that it would eventually become a member of NATO, along with Ukraine. This infuriated Russia and, by most accounts, made Putin determined to "punish" Georgia. It upped its presence in Ossetia and Abkhazia, unilaterally (and, under international treaties and norms, illegally) gave Russian passports to almost all citizens of South Ossetia, thus allowing them to claim Ossetians as Russian citizens. Then the Ossetian rebels increased the frequency and ferocity of their attacks. A few days ago, Georgia launched a campaign to stop these attacks, which wound up killing civilians and Russian soldiers.
Basically, Georgia took the bait. This allowed Russia to claim that Georgia was "killing Russian peacekeepers and Russian citizens," which, it seems, is what they've been planning to happen--the speed with which they deployed Russian tanks and soldiers suggests that they had them mobilized before Georgia launched the attack to crush the separatists in what is still really Georgian territory. Since then, as it says in the link, Russia's been bombing Georgian cities, while Georgian troops battle Russian soldiers and Ossetian rebels in the Ossetian capital. There are conflicting reports about who controls what right now, but it's hard to see how the small and poor country of Georgia can fend off Russia.
Further, this is an exercise in Russian geopolitics. It's retaliation for Europe's support of Kosovo's independence, which Russia is claiming as a precedent for allying itself with Ossetia and Abkhazia. It's an exploitation of the unilateralist precedent set by America's invasion of Iraq. And most worryingly, this is Russia flexing its muscle, showing that its military strength has been revitalized after the decade of decay in the 90s, and sending a message to Ukraine, Moldova, Estonia...any former Soviet Republics that have been seeking to cast off Moscow's influence and--god forbid--actually control their own internal affairs.
This is serious business. What are we supposed to do about it? Georgia is our ally and our friend, and for all Saakashvili's tendencies to egotism and authoritarianism, he's opened up Georgian society to unprecedented levels, and while Georgians are still dirt poor, they're much better off than they were before he came to power. But Europe and America are turning a blind eye to this because they're tied up in Afghanistan and Iraq, and this is the consequence: when an actual threat emerges, we can't do anything to stop it because we went running off on fools errands against countries that didn't do anything to us.
But the rest of the world needs to do
something. Europeans should be especially concerned--this has massive implications for Europe, namely the Baltic states, which are already a part of the EU and are constantly under pressure and cyber-attacks from Russian nationalist gangs, as well as for Ukraine, which is a crucial country to be independent. It's obvious that Russia believes it should still have considerable influence in all former Soviet republics, particularly ones that are important to its previous empire, such as Georgia and Ukraine (Indeed, Vladimir Putin once went so far as to say that "Ukraine is not a country.") If Georgia is allowed to fall, Russia's not going to stop. But Europeans are so dependent on Russia for their energy that they're stuck. Germany is a large part of this problem, as it seems determined to have Russia have a near monopoly on energy supplies to Europe. Europe needs to break away from this dependence on Russian gas and oil and look to other places--it would be wiser, frankly, to get energy even from places like Saudi Arabia rather than Russia. The Saudis don't have neo-imperialistic ambitions in Europe. Russia certainly does.
For all the talk of worries about China's rise, China is relatively pragmatic. It has no desire to raise tensions with anyone, since its economic rise is so entwined in the global economy and it has a stake in stability. Russia, on the other hand, is far more unpredictable and wanton to act erratically and violently to any challenge to it.
tl;dr? -- Probably not the beginning of WWIII, but a massive fucking problem with truly global implications. This is Russia here-- not some backwards Muslim country that can't defend itself. How do you stop it from invading Georgia, a sovereign country? 
