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Author Topic: Michael Jackson Died, Guys  (Read 37230 times)

Tyler

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Re: Michael Jackson Died, Guys
« Reply #150 on: 01 Jul 2009, 11:55 »

I am pretty bummed that he died. I was sort of hoping these farewell concert things in London would start to put an end to the very screwy period of time.
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Re: Michael Jackson Died, Guys
« Reply #151 on: 01 Jul 2009, 12:41 »

Quote from: David Schmader, The Stranger
“It’s like he’s been dying for years,” said a friend discussing Jackson. I get her point, but NOW HE’S DEAD and any latent dreams of Jackson executing some miraculous third-act comeback (in my dreams, this always involved Rick Rubin, à la Johnny Cash) die with him. The period has been placed at the end of the sentence. His art will not fight back and redeem him.

It’s enough to make you cry.
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Re: Michael Jackson Died, Guys
« Reply #152 on: 01 Jul 2009, 12:55 »

And again I hate to be the dude who says this but is it entirely impossible for Jackson's accuser to be in that 1%, the one case in one hundred that was a false accusation?

Yeah. But there's a 99% chance that it wasn't.
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Sox

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Re: Michael Jackson Died, Guys
« Reply #153 on: 01 Jul 2009, 13:00 »

Except that two police investigations and an extended court trial determined that it was.
After weighing up all the testimonies and evidence from both cases, I'm 100% convinced that he was innocent. You can have my left nut if he wasn't.
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KvP

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Re: Michael Jackson Died, Guys
« Reply #154 on: 01 Jul 2009, 13:07 »

Except that two police investigations and an extended court trial determined that it was.
After weighing up all the testimonies and evidence from both cases, I'm 100% convinced that he was innocent. You can have my left nut if he wasn't.
God what I wouldn't give to live in a world where court decisions actually meant something.
« Last Edit: 01 Jul 2009, 13:09 by KvP »
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Ozymandias

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Re: Michael Jackson Died, Guys
« Reply #155 on: 01 Jul 2009, 14:19 »

God what I wouldn't give to live in a world where people made epic walls of text about whether or not a dead pop star touched children.
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KvP

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Re: Michael Jackson Died, Guys
« Reply #156 on: 01 Jul 2009, 15:00 »

It's not really about Michael Jackson (I wouldn't say with 100% certainty that Michael Jackson was a child molester, I'd say the statistics point to it being more likely than not), but about the cultural tendency towards victim-blaming when accusations are made, which is on display here even as attempts have been made to mark this case as exceptional. For most people questioning this tendency takes them well outside of their comfort zone, and they react with willful disbelief, or an ironic detachment that allows the awful things of the world (racism, rape, violence) to be humorous and harmless.
« Last Edit: 01 Jul 2009, 15:03 by KvP »
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Ozymandias

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Re: Michael Jackson Died, Guys
« Reply #157 on: 01 Jul 2009, 15:02 »

I must've created a new reality based on wishes and hopes.

I'm so happy.
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KvP

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Re: Michael Jackson Died, Guys
« Reply #158 on: 01 Jul 2009, 15:09 »

That goes without saying. In general our happiness largely depends on the denial of commonplace violence. That's really the burden that anybody who tries to challenge conventional ideas (that we live in a post-racial society, that rape is not common, that the institutions we support funtion for most and are oppressive to none) carries. There are always conservative minds who wonder what the point of it all is, but when you don't say these things you then you're promoting ignorance, and it's the ignorance that ends up really being responsible for so many terrible things that happen.
« Last Edit: 01 Jul 2009, 15:14 by KvP »
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Re: Michael Jackson Died, Guys
« Reply #159 on: 01 Jul 2009, 15:57 »

Look, it is likely that we will never know more than we do now, or that any new evidence that might appear will be inherently less reliable than that we already have (passage of time, etc).  We also know that court processes can make mistakes, but generally do not ; though in the case of complete uncertainty, veering away from conviction of course.  If we start saying that the verdict in this case is likely to be wrong because of some statistics (statistical figures by their nature don't apply to individual cases, remember), then we are essentially throwing away our belief in the entire justice system.

I don't 'know' in an absolute sense if MJ was guilty in this case; but equally I see no reason not to accept the court's decisions and get on with my life - the court had and considered more information than I have.
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Re: Michael Jackson Died, Guys
« Reply #160 on: 01 Jul 2009, 15:57 »

Except that two police investigations and an extended court trial determined that it was.
After weighing up all the testimonies and evidence from both cases, I'm 100% convinced that he was innocent. You can have my left nut if he wasn't.

If I wind up winning the nut in this deal (not saying I will, I agree with you completely), I want it framed with an autographed matting.

Nah but seriously dude the American justice system is flawed but it's not like people don't put as much work as they can into that shit you know? Especially considering the stakes for both sides in either outcome.
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KvP

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Re: Michael Jackson Died, Guys
« Reply #161 on: 01 Jul 2009, 18:25 »

Look, it is likely that we will never know more than we do now, or that any new evidence that might appear will be inherently less reliable than that we already have (passage of time, etc).  We also know that court processes can make mistakes, but generally do not ; though in the case of complete uncertainty, veering away from conviction of course.  If we start saying that the verdict in this case is likely to be wrong because of some statistics (statistical figures by their nature don't apply to individual cases, remember), then we are essentially throwing away our belief in the entire justice system.
There's not much reason to believe in the justice system outside of some feeling that we ought to. In the UK, for instance,5.6% of reported rape cases resulted in convictions, which is as far as I know the lowest rate in the developed world (though there are likely developed countries that have much lower rates of report than the UK, which befuddles the comparitive stats to some degree). Let's be extremely conservative and say that 30% of all reported rapes were valid. In that case, 5 times as many rapists received no penalties as those who did. I'm not sure how anyone could say that in that case court processes "generally do not" make mistakes.

I'm inclined to say that the system works exactly the way it's intended to - note that the BBC singles out skepticism on the part of prosecutors and police to reported cases. The prevailing concern in the common law court is not to provide validation for victims, but to prevent innocents from being convicted. Which in itself is certainly not a malicious goal, but there is a trade-off here, in that the burden of proof is so high to protect innocents that its actual effect is to protect the guilty.

If you can prove the rapist had sex with the victim, the rapist can claim that it was consensual, which is a possibility that creates reasonable doubt. If there are signs of violence, the rapist can claim that the victim "liked it rough", a possibility that creates reasonable doubt. If the victim was wearing a miniskirt, good luck convincing a jury that consent wasn't given. If a woman has had more than one or two sex partners in a short span of time there will never be a conviction no matter how hard you try. If the victim was a prostitute, isn't that what they're paid for? If the victim was under the influence of alcohol or drugs, then hell, the rapist basically has carte blanche. If the threshold for acquittal is a reasonable doubt then rapists in general have less to fear from the justice system than common shoplifters, provided they did not commit their crime in public, or on camera, or they are uneducated men of color. Prosecutors and police know all this, and so what reason do they have to work on rape claims? They could be spending their time investigating cases they can actually win. There's no easy way to avoid this, but the very least we can do is acknowledge that it is a reality, and a problem.
« Last Edit: 01 Jul 2009, 18:51 by KvP »
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Re: Michael Jackson Died, Guys
« Reply #162 on: 01 Jul 2009, 18:47 »

John, you're making arguments where there really doesn't need to be any. I'm convinced your strong personal feelings on the subjects of rape, abuse, and the way they're handled are making you pursue a debate that nobody else wants to have, especially in this thread.
You're presenting very valid arguments about a topic that has nothing to do with what anybody else is talking about. Some of your arguments seem crazy and irrational because they have absolutely nothing to do with this specific case. The only reason people are arguing with you is because your arguments, though technically correct, are completely irrelevant and somewhat unwelcome.
Paul's attempt at mediation was certainly not an invitation to discuss the faults with the justice system. if you want to have that debate, start it elsewhere.
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Re: Michael Jackson Died, Guys
« Reply #163 on: 01 Jul 2009, 18:53 »

I had a post typed up this morning but then my internet failed and I had to go to class. Glad to see it's not really needed anymore.

Anyways, to reiterate what Darryl has been saying, the parties involved in this argument seem to perceive different stakes.
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KvP

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Re: Michael Jackson Died, Guys
« Reply #164 on: 01 Jul 2009, 19:34 »

John, you're making arguments where there really doesn't need to be any. I'm convinced your strong personal feelings on the subjects of rape, abuse, and the way they're handled are making you pursue a debate that nobody else wants to have, especially in this thread.
You're presenting very valid arguments about a topic that has nothing to do with what anybody else is talking about. Some of your arguments seem crazy and irrational because they have absolutely nothing to do with this specific case. The only reason people are arguing with you is because your arguments, though technically correct, are completely irrelevant and somewhat unwelcome.
Paul's attempt at mediation was certainly not an invitation to discuss the faults with the justice system. if you want to have that debate, start it elsewhere.
I'm pretty sure nobody ever really wants to have this debate, because nobody likes to think about this kind of thing, it is nasty and sad and it doesn't affect the majority of us. But lots of things we are comfortable talking about are similar. I held it off as long as I could, but when I felt like I had to I bring it up because of a prevailing belief in the falsehood of the claims made against Jackson. Consider that on the first page of the thread nobo said this -
how long before an alleged victim of his abuse comes out with a tell-all book?
Which is a fairly blatant, if flippant, assertion of gold-diggery. This was uncommented upon, but there was a lot of fretting over people making blatant, if flippant, assertions that MJ was an offender. There was even a separate thread created to protect this space from such statements. Because MJ was such a beloved pop star, the idea that he was framed was very welcome to a lot of people. But as I showed, the statistical chance of it being false were very low, and yet people are adamant about the statistics not applying, which might be because they feel as though MJ is a special case (I don't think he is) but I think it's really because they don't want to believe the statistics are valid in any case. When faced with the possibiity that someone you like or love is a criminal and an abuser, the statistics never apply. It's much easier to believe that accusers are confused or mistaken or, if they're dogged enough, vindictive or greedy, than to believe that the people accused of these crimes are guilty, that these crimes happen with the frequency they do.

The possibility remains that the accusers are lying. This possibility is present in all cases. But in all cases the measured chances of that being the case are fairly slim. Given that, it's only reasonable that people harbor a tentative, careful belief in the veracity of claims made, as I do. But that is not the case. More people by bounds believe in innocence, and belief in guilt is derided as vindictiveness, ignorance and slander (though the converse belief is never derided as such, because of MJ's supposed uniqueness)

There are indeed different stakes being perceived here, with other boarders taking the view that perceptions around this case apply only to it, and my view that the perceptions are applicable to sex crime in general. I believe that of you look at the dialogue around any other case that contains the basic elements of this case (powerful man accused of wrongdoing) you will hear many statements similar to the ones made here, and many that are identical.
« Last Edit: 01 Jul 2009, 19:48 by KvP »
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Re: Michael Jackson Died, Guys
« Reply #165 on: 01 Jul 2009, 19:47 »

John, I love ya man, but please start a new thread for this. This is not the place for it.
« Last Edit: 01 Jul 2009, 19:50 by ackblom12 »
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KvP

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Re: Michael Jackson Died, Guys
« Reply #166 on: 01 Jul 2009, 19:50 »

It's coming, don't worry.
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Re: Michael Jackson Died, Guys
« Reply #167 on: 01 Jul 2009, 19:52 »

No dude. People here are so willing to believe that Michael Jackson was innocent because of the overwhelming evidence that he was. Not because he was a 'unique' popstar that everybody loves. You've clearly put a lot of research into statistics, but how much research have you actually put into the specifics of this case? The only 'evidence' to suggest he did anything was that he had the oppurtunity to do it and it seems like you're saying that's more than enough to assume somebody is guilty.
Statistics are pretty much useless in the face of actual evidence, of which you have provided none. Statistics are not evidence.
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Re: Michael Jackson Died, Guys
« Reply #168 on: 01 Jul 2009, 19:55 »

Artists are different from art, michael jackson was sicc, chill succas.
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Re: Michael Jackson Died, Guys
« Reply #169 on: 01 Jul 2009, 19:56 »

The arguments in this thread are pretty much monuments to bizarre circular logic.

"MJ was probably guilty because he was accused of being guilty." - KvP

"MJ was probably not guilty because he seems so likely to be guilty." - Darryl
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Re: Michael Jackson Died, Guys
« Reply #170 on: 01 Jul 2009, 20:01 »

Let's not argue guys! Michael Jackson was a ghastly, spoiled, selfish waste of skin, and now he's dead!

Let's celebrate!
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Re: Michael Jackson Died, Guys
« Reply #171 on: 01 Jul 2009, 20:10 »

At this point it's difficult to research the Evan Chandler case, because of the false recantation that's flooded internet sites of disrepute, and various sites littering the first few pages of Google accusing Chandler of being a gold digger and in some cases providing his contact information. I was hoping the Washington Post would keep its archives free but you have to buy pageviews over 60 days old, and I don't have money to buy research. I know of the Taraborrelli book, which I've heard is thorough, but its assertion of tape-recorded statements of intent to extort have yet to be corroborated elsewhere as far as I'm aware. Do you have links that I could read?

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"MJ was probably guilty because he was accused of being guilty." - KvP


"MJ was probably not guilty because he seems so likely to be guilty." - Darryl
These are only circular arguments because they are incomplete representations of our actual arguments. My argument was "A. MJ was accused of committing child abuse B. False accusations of child abuse are statistically unlikely therefore C. The accusations against MJ are likelier to have merit than not to have merit."
« Last Edit: 01 Jul 2009, 20:16 by KvP »
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Re: Michael Jackson Died, Guys
« Reply #172 on: 01 Jul 2009, 20:17 »

Can I just start accusing people of child abuse until it become statistically likely that people are falsely accused and then MJ can be off the hook?

I am deeply devoted to this man.
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Re: Michael Jackson Died, Guys
« Reply #173 on: 01 Jul 2009, 20:42 »

Defending Michael Jackson is kinda like defending Louis XVI.
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Re: Michael Jackson Died, Guys
« Reply #174 on: 02 Jul 2009, 01:45 »

Just heard on the news, the family will -not- be displaying his body.


But who would want to go and see micheal jacksons body, after what it's been through? It's an anorexic balding white man with horrible hair and a cut up face.

Just seems rather strange that anyone wishing to respect his memory would want to see him in a state like that.
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Re: Michael Jackson Died, Guys
« Reply #175 on: 02 Jul 2009, 02:08 »

So, guys, sorry for being an ass earlier with my post.  I was slightly tipsy and I was reminded of a friend of mind who was accused of rape by his girlfriend because he left her for another girl.
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Re: Michael Jackson Died, Guys
« Reply #176 on: 02 Jul 2009, 03:59 »

In the UK, for instance,5.6% of reported rape cases resulted in convictions

Damned statistics.  Taking the figures from that article, they also say that 40% of trials for rape ended in a conviction.  The reported cases that did not go to trial need to be considered separately, as the same level of information on them is not available to us, not having been made public by the court process - they also shed no light on the court process, not having gone through it.

Sorry, thread, but I couldn't let that pass.
« Last Edit: 02 Jul 2009, 04:03 by pwhodges »
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Re: Michael Jackson Died, Guys
« Reply #177 on: 02 Jul 2009, 04:08 »

That does mean 60% of rape trials do not end in conviction. Now I'm not going to say that there aren't cases of false accusations. Let's be insanely generous and call that 20% of rape cases that go to trial.

This means that at least half of all rapists who end up in court get off scot-free. Half.
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Re: Michael Jackson Died, Guys
« Reply #178 on: 02 Jul 2009, 04:12 »



Every man is innocent until speculated guilty!
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Re: Michael Jackson Died, Guys
« Reply #179 on: 03 Jul 2009, 02:32 »

That does mean 60% of rape trials do not end in conviction. Now I'm not going to say that there aren't cases of false accusations. Let's be insanely generous and call that 20% of rape cases that go to trial.

This means that at least half of all rapists who end up in court get off scot-free. Half.

With my history I am afraid I would contribute to that statistic completely unintentionally. I was assaulted last year and I kept meaning to file a police report and just never got around to it. In my defense, I never did know the guy's last name, but my ADHD symptoms can be a real fucker. I also told everyone I knew at the time, and everyone I encountered that he knew by name (which was like 4 people), but I still never did anything proper about it.




Michael Jackson dying makes me immensely sad. My dad used to dance me around to his songs like Black or White and Beat It, and there were tons of Jackson 5 songs on my kids-song videos. I don't really know what it is like to wish to be that young again [with no responsibilities and carefree and just having fun, or whatever], but the notion that he is gone makes it that much more unrealistic, even for nostalgic purposes. I was always sad that he ended up vaguely creepy and in a position to be subjected to all sorts of horrible allegations, but I had lovely memories, and I guess I will just have to not forget them.
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Re: Michael Jackson Died, Guys
« Reply #180 on: 03 Jul 2009, 06:24 »

1% is a pretty damn big number.

Anyway, has anybody here been to an actual criminal trial as an impartial observer? What you see on the news, if anything at all, is the most provocative stuff, because it sells papers and ads. What you don't see on the news? Well, that makes all the difference.
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