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The country, not the state.

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öde:
Exactly, the Russian state can't keep control of it's own land (crime, etc), let alone pose a threat to others.

I should ask the Russian world politics student staying at my friend's house what he thinks of this.

waterloosunset:
Lot of crime in the US too..


And NATO can't fight Russia now, the only major players are bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan. Russia knows this, as does Iran. That's where all this posturing is coming from.

And let's not forget the price of oil. Give Russia a few years, it'll be back. They never did get rid of all that hardware from the Cold War. As soon as they can, they'll be bringing it back into readiness.

Johnny C:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7552659.stm


--- Quote ---But Russia denied that exchanges of fire had stopped, and continued to bomb targets near Georgia's capital Tbilisi
--- End quote ---

welp

RedLion:
The fact that Russia only carries out acts of aggression against former Soviet republics is what makes it so unnerving. Russia can't seem to accept that these are independent countries and that it has no business telling them how to run their affairs.

And the Russian state has its territory firmly locked up. It has no problems keeping control over its own land now that the war in Chechnya and a smaller rebellion in Ingushetia have mostly died out.

Obviously Russia's economy is built on nothing but sky-high prices for natural gas and oil. If the price were to take a sudden plunge, it would take Russia's entire economy along with it. But even though the price has been falling the last week or so, it shows no signs of falling so far or so fast as to make Russia realize that its economy is living on borrowed time, especially since they never really reformed any of the business practices or official corruption that led to the economic crisis of the 90's.


--- Quote from: Johnny C on 10 Aug 2008, 09:59 ---http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7552659.stm


--- Quote ---But Russia denied that exchanges of fire had stopped, and continued to bomb targets near Georgia's capital Tbilisi
--- End quote ---

welp

--- End quote ---

Lovely. Basically they're saying "WHAT? WHAT'S THAT? CEASEFIRE? SORRY, CAN'T HEAR YOU OVER ALL THESE BOMBS I'M DROPPING!"

tommydski:

--- Quote from: waterloosunset on 10 Aug 2008, 09:58 --- And NATO can't fight Russia now, the only major players are bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan. Russia knows this, as does Iran. That's where all this posturing is coming from.
--- End quote ---

Key word: Posturing. That's exactly the right description.


--- Quote from: waterloosunset on 10 Aug 2008, 09:58 --- And let's not forget the price of oil. Give Russia a few years, it'll be back. They never did get rid of all that hardware from the Cold War. As soon as they can, they'll be bringing it back into readiness.
--- End quote ---

There is no chance of this happening. They have neither the resources or the internal infrastructure. The USSR was almost as much of a bluff as the current regime. The idea that their rotting and technologically outdated arsenal from the arms race is going to somehow spring back into readiness is pretty absurd. Russia has a third world economy. They are vaguely comparable to the smallest of western European countries in terms of GNP if you believe their most, shall we say, optimistic reports. Personally I don't.

Right now Russia has more in common with say, Nigeria than any European country. Both are oil-rich but corrupt to the point of economic stagnation. There's a good article in the Economist here which sums up some of these issues quit succinctly.

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