Well a couple of weeks later I must say that if Warren Barguil keeps climbing mountains and getting in large leading groups he might as well win it for France. He lost a shitton of time in the first week but he's less than 10 minutes away now.
He would need at least 10 minutes to get the minute needed to hold off Froome in the TT. Not going to happen. If he gets on par with Contador none of the top 5 will let him get up the road. GC riders only take the polka dot jersey by happenstance, not by target. He's being allowed to go away in the breakaway groups, for now.
The real hope for France is pinned on Romain Bardet. He still needs to chuck 1m23s into Froome if he wants to stand a chance of wearing the yellow jersey in Paris and with two downhill finishes in three days, he may well do that. I reckon he'll at least overhaul Aru who is vulnerable due to lack of team around him.
Things to watch out for today:
Bardet and all of AG2R at the 2nd climb attempting to force a gap while the sprinters teams wet the bed.
Michael Matthews desperately trying to get ahead of Kittel in the intermediate sprint.
Steve Cummings in general.
Actually a AG2R, Sunweb, Dimension Data alliance today could be very damaging to the shape of the race if there's any crosswinds in the second half.